Preparing Our Portfolio For The Next Bear Market

The stock markets are in a mature bull phase, and I was thinking about how to improve our portfolio to adapt to this situation. I don't know when will come the next bear market, and I think that nobody can predict it. Because of it I can only do what I have influence on: change our portfolio to fit for an unpredictable future.

There are a lot of good shares, what we can buy at a reasonable price, but we try to choose those, that are working in non-cyclical industries. If I see two good opportunities I will choose for our portfolio the one that works in non-cyclical industry. The non-cyclical companies will perform better in the next economic recession, and we will have more reliable dividend income from them.

Because we have large positions in cyclical shares like Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), BHP Billiton and BMW we had to build sizable positions in non-cyclical companies. In June we bought the shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and CardinalHealth (CAH) companies. Now WBA is our second largest position. The shares of BHP Billiton and Royal Dutch Shell (which is our largest position) were bought during the oil price downturn in 2015-2016.

To streighten our portfolio we can buy consumer staples, what would be really great, but I think that the threat of Amazon created a good opportunity to buy healthcare related shares and they provide better valuation than the most consumer staples.

WBA and CAH are the members of David Fish's list. Cardinal Health increased it's dividend in the last 21 years and WBA is a dividend aristocrat, which increased it's dividend in the last 42 years. I believe, that both of them will be good investment for the next decades.

Disclosure: We have Royal Dutch Shell, BHP Billiton, BMW, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Cardinal Health shares.

Recent Sell - Macy's

I bought a few shares of Macy's at $19.02 seven months ago. At that time, the panic about the impact of the Amazon on the offline retailers was really high. Almost every financial newspapers write about it, and it was a good opportunity to buy an undervalued good company. I saw, that the company worth more, and it can easily pay out the dividends from it's FCF. I thought that I can collect my dividend payments until the market realize, that the company worth much more. So I had a great, 7.94% dividend yield, while I am waiting.

Yesterday I sold all of my shares at $39.79. It was a really good business for me, because I can double my initial investment. If I would not sell it, now I can collect 3.77% dividend yield. This yield is not so good for me for a fairly valued company. I think, that there are much better investment possibilities at todays market. I hope, that I can find some undervalued dividend growth stock in a few days.

Recent Sell & Buy – January – TEVA, Ventas, Gilead Sciences

I bought a few shares of TEVA in August 2017. I thought that the market overreacted the announced goodwill impairment, and it has a good valuation. As I saw the revenue and EPS decline, and the large restructuring, I felt that I can not predict the profit of the company for the next few years and I closed my long position at $21.41. It brings me a small profit for this few months.

(Source: www.finviz.com)

I bought Ventas (VTR) shares at $56.19 which means 5.52% dividend yield for me. I think that VTR is a great company, which increased it's dividend in the last 7 years and has not decreased it in 2008-2009.

(Source: www.finviz.com)

As I have more money after selling my TEVA shares, I bought a few shares of Gilead Sciences (GILD) at $80.74 which gives me 2.86% dividend yield (after the recently announced dividend increase).

  (Source: www.finviz.com)

Full disclosure: Long VTR, GILD

Related Posts:

• Recent Buy – TEVA
• Recent Buy – TEVA - 2

Profit of Hungarian Shares in the Last 10 Years

I calculated the profit of the largest publicly traded Hungarian companies. I used the share prices from the end of 2007 as a starting point. So, it is before the Great Recession of 2008-2009, that's why, the beginning valuation is really high, and the profits are not so good for a ten year period. (If I would start from the end of 2008, it would show us much better profits.)

Data sources: Budapest Stock Exchange, Sectors and Industries from investing.com.


I found really interesting, that there are plenty of high dividend paying shares among the top of the table. The share price of Zwack, Emasz or Elmu changed only a little, but the high dividend brought good returns for the shareholders. That's why I like so much the dividend paying stocks.

Disclaimer: long ANY

Recent Sell – V. F. Corporation

I bought a few shares of V. F. Corporation (VFC) in February 2017. I thought that it has a good valuation at $50.30. 

When I bought the shares, the P/BV was 4.21 and the P/S was 1.71, but now I calculate P/BV 7.62 and P/S 2.50. The P/E was 19.80 at the time of my purchase, and I felt, that it is a good opportunity to buy a dividend aristocrat. 

Now, (as I calculate) the P/E is 28.52, which is a really high value for a company which has only single digit long term revenue and EPS growth rate. So these ratios show me, that it is better to realize my profit. I sold my shares at $74.14, which gives me a really good capital gain. I think that I will find much better investment opportunities for my money in the next few months.

Related Posts:

• Dividend Increase - V. F. Corportation (VFC)
• Recent Sell – Allianz AG 

Recent Buy – November – Fresenius

November was a calm month for my investments. I got my dividends from Next Plc and CVS Health and I bought a few shares of Fresenius SE (Xetra: FRE) at €62.28 which gives me 0.99% dividend yield. Fresenius is a global healthcare group, and offers products and services for dialysis, hospitals and outpatient medical care. It focuses on the hospital operations and offers engineering and services for hospitals and other health care facilities.

Fresenius increased it's dividend in the last 24 years, which is really rare among european companies. As I look at the numbers and valuation of Fresenius, I think its a great company at a fair price. It shows great growth in the last 10 years and I believe that it can maintain this growth in the next decade.

Full disclosure: Long CVS, Next Plc, Fresenius

Recent Buy – TEVA - 2

A few days ago I wrote about my purchase of TEVA shares. The share price continued the falling, and I was thinking about the company's prospects. I think that the company's debt is managable on a long term horizont, but the short term financial ratios are not so good. That's why there are so many articles about the company's short term financial problems and the probability of bankrupcy. But I think that they can manage the short term problems and they will get large support from the Israeli Ministry of Economy.

I think that the black clouds will go away, but it needs long time. I bought a few more shares at $18.05. I know that it is a very risky investment, but I believe that the company worth more.

Full disclosure: Long TEVA.

Related Posts:

1. Recent Buy – Kroger
2. Recent Buy – TEVA

Recent Buy – TEVA

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TEVA) is a pharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in developing, producing and marketing generic medicines and a portfolio of specialty medicines.

Yesterday TEVA reported second quarter 2017 financial reports, lowered the 2017 business outlook and announced second quarter 2017 dividend of 8.5 cents, down 75% from 34 cents in the first quarter of 2017. Because of the negative news the share price of TEVA presented a huge decline, and it closed on $23.75 (-24.00%).

As I saw this decline of the share price, I decided to buy a few shares of TEVA and I successfully bought it at $23.97.

The company has 224.06 P/E ratio, but the forward P/E ratio is 5.05. TEVA has 0.76 Altman Z-Score, which means that it is in Distress Zone. The Debt/Equity ratio stands at 1.14, but most of them are long-term debt. (LT Debt/Equity: 1.08) I understand that the most of the investors don't like the dividend cut, but I think that the dividend cut will help the company to decrease the debt pile. I know that it is a very risky investment, but I believe that the company worth more.

Full disclosure: Long TEVA.

Related Posts:

1. Recent Buy – Kroger

Nike – Fiscal 2017 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results

Nike (NKE) reported fiscal 2017 fourth quarter and full year results yesterday. The company presented really good growth.

• Fourth quarter revenues up 5 percent to $8.7 billion; 7 percent growth on a currency-neutral basis*
• Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share increased 22 percent to $0.60
• Fiscal 2017 revenues up 6 percent to $34.4 billion; 8 percent growth on a currency-neutral basis*
• Fiscal 2017 diluted earnings per share increased 16 percent to $2.51

Nike closed at $53.17 yesterday. If I calculate with the newly reported diluted earnings per share, it has a 21.18 P/E ratio.

As I'm looking at these growth numbers, I'm seeing a wonderful company, so I happily hold my shares and collect my dividends.

Disclosure: Long Nike.

Related Posts:

• Nike - A Fairly Valued Share

Dividend Increase - Kroger

Kroger (NYSE: KR) announced that its Board approved a dividend increase from 48¢ to 50¢ per year. The next quarterly dividend of 12.5 cents per share will be paid on September 1, 2017, to shareholders of record on the close of business on August 15, 2017.

This means, that my YOC increased from 2.27% to 2.37%.

I think that today's prices offer a great opportunity for the management to repurchase the shares of the company. That's why I'm really satisfied with the announced $1 billion share repurchase program.

Related Posts:

• Recent Buy - Kroger

Disclosure: Long KR.

Nike – A Fairly Valued Share

It's really hard to find a good investment at today's overvalued financial markets. The S&P 500 is at a 24.08 TTM P/E ratio, which is historicaly really high. Nike (NKE) has a TTM P/E 22.32, while it presented a really inpressive growth in the last ten years. Nike's revenues increased 8.03% annually in the last ten years. (CAGR, 2006-2016) At the same time frame, the EPS increased 12.59% and the annual dividend increased 15.44%.

As I'm looking at these growth numbers, I'm seeing a wonderful company, so I bought a few Nike shares last week. Nike has 1.35% dividend yield, which is really low, but I like it's growth prospects and I believe that my yield on cost will increase significantly in the next few years.

GlaxoSmithKline - A Potential Dividend Cut

A few years ago I bought a few shares of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) because of it's good dividend yield and dividend-paying track record. I felt myself really good while I was receiving the dividends. But a few month ago, I read the company’s 2016 Annual Report. I saw that the EPS was £0,19 and the dividend was £0,80, so the EPS didn’t cover the dividend. It was not a good news for me, so I read more to see the chairman’s words about it. I found this:

“Ordinary dividends of 80p per share have been declared for 2016, the same level as 2015. The company expects to maintain the same payment in 2017, in accordance with the statements made in 2015. This level of distribution still exceeds the free cash flow generated by the business despite the material improvement in cash generated in 2016 referred to above. Given that 2017 is the last year of the three year dividend commitment made in 2015, the Board will be considering the appropriate dividend policy for 2018 and beyond during the course of the year. ”

(Source: Annual Report 2016 – GSK, 04.p.)

I think that the Board will cut the dividend in 2018. The GSK needs a really good financial performance in 2017 to avoid the dividend cut. The first quater of 2017 was a good beginning, but I sold my shares, because I'm more relaxed to watch it from a little distance.

Full disclosure: I have no position in GlaxoSmithKline.

My First Shares – Hungarian Telekom (MATÁV)

Now I'm an investor, who is looking for long term investments, but when I started, I was trading actively. I used to learn more from my investing mistakes, than my successful trades, so I share my first trade on the stock market.

In May, 2000 I bought a few shares of the Hungarian Telekom company at a 2000 HUF per share. That time was almost the top of the tech bubble, but I didn't know it. As many other inexperienced investor, I entered into the market with terribble timing.

(Source: https://bet.hu/oldalak/ceg_adatlap/$security/MTELEKOM)

After my bought the price of the share went down, and I was waiting for a little correction to close the deal. I was really lucky, that I could sell them in a few month with 1% gain. Yes, I was lucky, because I bought it at a very high valuation.

Two investment lessons, that I learned:

• Never buy shares with high valuation.
  • The share was after a large price increase and the fundamentals didn't follow it.
• Most of the beginner investors starts investing when the market has a high valuation.
  • More and more new investor comes to the stock market, because of the low interest rates and the good yields of the past 8 years, while the markets have really high valuation.

A Few Words About Me

Today is a great day for me. I have decided to make a blog and write about my financial journey. As a frugal man I put aside at least half of my salary, and I made a few investments over the last two decades. I bought my first shares in 2000. I saw the collapse of the tech bubble and the 2008-2009 crisis. I collected some valuable expreience about investing while I bought and sold shares. I would like to share my thoughts and my experience with my readers on this blog. 

In the last two years I read a lot about dividend growth investing, which greatly inspired me. Nowadays I have an investing style which is the mixture of dividend growth investing and value investing.