Investing Quotes

As I was thinking about the stock markets in the last few weeks, a few good quotes come to my mind:

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - Peter Lynch

"The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation." - Seth Klarman

"Prices fluctuate more than values—so therein lies opportunity." - Joel Greenblatt

"Remember that the stock market is a manic depressive." - Warren Buffett

"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - John Templeton

Recent Sell - Macy's

I bought a few shares of Macy's at $19.02 seven months ago. At that time, the panic about the impact of the Amazon on the offline retailers was really high. Almost every financial newspapers write about it, and it was a good opportunity to buy an undervalued good company. I saw, that the company worth more, and it can easily pay out the dividends from it's FCF. I thought that I can collect my dividend payments until the market realize, that the company worth much more. So I had a great, 7.94% dividend yield, while I am waiting.

Yesterday I sold all of my shares at $39.79. It was a really good business for me, because I can double my initial investment. If I would not sell it, now I can collect 3.77% dividend yield. This yield is not so good for me for a fairly valued company. I think, that there are much better investment possibilities at todays market. I hope, that I can find some undervalued dividend growth stock in a few days.

Recent Sell – Allianz AG

I bought a few shares of Allianz AG in 2016 after the Brexit referendum. That was a good timing, because of the panic at the stock market. I sold that shares a few days ago, because I think, that the valuation of the company's shares are really high.

When I bought the shares, the P/BV was 0.85 and the P/S was 0.52, but now I calculate P/BV 1.31 and P/S 0.75. If I look at the historical data, I can only see such high values in 2007. So this two ratios show me, that it is better to realize my profit.

But what I would expect from the company if I hold the shares? Allianz increased it's revenue from €92.183 billion to €110.500 billion over the period spanning fiscal years 2007 to 2016. That's a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.89%.

Over the same 10-year period, the company's diluted earnings per share decreased from €17.71 to €15.00, which is a CAGR of -1.12%.

 I think that it's not so impressive from a company, so take a look at it's dividend.

The company increased it's dividend in the last 4 years, with a ten year CAGR 7.18%. The dividend yield is 4.12% with my selling price. (€184.35) The payout ratio increased in the last 10 years.

These numbers show me, that the company's numbers are stagnating, and I won't expect great long-term returns from it. It was a good value play for me, but at today's prices I think that I will find muh better investment opportunities for my money in the next few months.

A Few Words About Me

Today is a great day for me. I have decided to make a blog and write about my financial journey. As a frugal man I put aside at least half of my salary, and I made a few investments over the last two decades. I bought my first shares in 2000. I saw the collapse of the tech bubble and the 2008-2009 crisis. I collected some valuable expreience about investing while I bought and sold shares. I would like to share my thoughts and my experience with my readers on this blog. 

In the last two years I read a lot about dividend growth investing, which greatly inspired me. Nowadays I have an investing style which is the mixture of dividend growth investing and value investing.