Investing Quotes

As I was thinking about the stock markets in the last few weeks, a few good quotes come to my mind:

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - Peter Lynch

"The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation." - Seth Klarman

"Prices fluctuate more than values—so therein lies opportunity." - Joel Greenblatt

"Remember that the stock market is a manic depressive." - Warren Buffett

"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - John Templeton

Preparing Our Portfolio For The Next Bear Market

The stock markets are in a mature bull phase, and I was thinking about how to improve our portfolio to adapt to this situation. I don't know when will come the next bear market, and I think that nobody can predict it. Because of it I can only do what I have influence on: change our portfolio to fit for an unpredictable future.

There are a lot of good shares, what we can buy at a reasonable price, but we try to choose those, that are working in non-cyclical industries. If I see two good opportunities I will choose for our portfolio the one that works in non-cyclical industry. The non-cyclical companies will perform better in the next economic recession, and we will have more reliable dividend income from them.

Because we have large positions in cyclical shares like Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), BHP Billiton and BMW we had to build sizable positions in non-cyclical companies. In June we bought the shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and CardinalHealth (CAH) companies. Now WBA is our second largest position. The shares of BHP Billiton and Royal Dutch Shell (which is our largest position) were bought during the oil price downturn in 2015-2016.

To streighten our portfolio we can buy consumer staples, what would be really great, but I think that the threat of Amazon created a good opportunity to buy healthcare related shares and they provide better valuation than the most consumer staples.

WBA and CAH are the members of David Fish's list. Cardinal Health increased it's dividend in the last 21 years and WBA is a dividend aristocrat, which increased it's dividend in the last 42 years. I believe, that both of them will be good investment for the next decades.

Disclosure: We have Royal Dutch Shell, BHP Billiton, BMW, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Cardinal Health shares.

Recent Sell - Macy's

I bought a few shares of Macy's at $19.02 seven months ago. At that time, the panic about the impact of the Amazon on the offline retailers was really high. Almost every financial newspapers write about it, and it was a good opportunity to buy an undervalued good company. I saw, that the company worth more, and it can easily pay out the dividends from it's FCF. I thought that I can collect my dividend payments until the market realize, that the company worth much more. So I had a great, 7.94% dividend yield, while I am waiting.

Yesterday I sold all of my shares at $39.79. It was a really good business for me, because I can double my initial investment. If I would not sell it, now I can collect 3.77% dividend yield. This yield is not so good for me for a fairly valued company. I think, that there are much better investment possibilities at todays market. I hope, that I can find some undervalued dividend growth stock in a few days.

Recent Sell & Buy – January – TEVA, Ventas, Gilead Sciences

I bought a few shares of TEVA in August 2017. I thought that the market overreacted the announced goodwill impairment, and it has a good valuation. As I saw the revenue and EPS decline, and the large restructuring, I felt that I can not predict the profit of the company for the next few years and I closed my long position at $21.41. It brings me a small profit for this few months.

(Source: www.finviz.com)

I bought Ventas (VTR) shares at $56.19 which means 5.52% dividend yield for me. I think that VTR is a great company, which increased it's dividend in the last 7 years and has not decreased it in 2008-2009.

(Source: www.finviz.com)

As I have more money after selling my TEVA shares, I bought a few shares of Gilead Sciences (GILD) at $80.74 which gives me 2.86% dividend yield (after the recently announced dividend increase).

  (Source: www.finviz.com)

Full disclosure: Long VTR, GILD

Related Posts:

• Recent Buy – TEVA
• Recent Buy – TEVA - 2

Profit of Hungarian Shares in the Last 10 Years

I calculated the profit of the largest publicly traded Hungarian companies. I used the share prices from the end of 2007 as a starting point. So, it is before the Great Recession of 2008-2009, that's why, the beginning valuation is really high, and the profits are not so good for a ten year period. (If I would start from the end of 2008, it would show us much better profits.)

Data sources: Budapest Stock Exchange, Sectors and Industries from investing.com.


I found really interesting, that there are plenty of high dividend paying shares among the top of the table. The share price of Zwack, Emasz or Elmu changed only a little, but the high dividend brought good returns for the shareholders. That's why I like so much the dividend paying stocks.

Disclaimer: long ANY

Recent Sell – V. F. Corporation

I bought a few shares of V. F. Corporation (VFC) in February 2017. I thought that it has a good valuation at $50.30. 

When I bought the shares, the P/BV was 4.21 and the P/S was 1.71, but now I calculate P/BV 7.62 and P/S 2.50. The P/E was 19.80 at the time of my purchase, and I felt, that it is a good opportunity to buy a dividend aristocrat. 

Now, (as I calculate) the P/E is 28.52, which is a really high value for a company which has only single digit long term revenue and EPS growth rate. So these ratios show me, that it is better to realize my profit. I sold my shares at $74.14, which gives me a really good capital gain. I think that I will find much better investment opportunities for my money in the next few months.

Related Posts:

• Dividend Increase - V. F. Corportation (VFC)
• Recent Sell – Allianz AG 

Recent Buy – November – Fresenius

November was a calm month for my investments. I got my dividends from Next Plc and CVS Health and I bought a few shares of Fresenius SE (Xetra: FRE) at €62.28 which gives me 0.99% dividend yield. Fresenius is a global healthcare group, and offers products and services for dialysis, hospitals and outpatient medical care. It focuses on the hospital operations and offers engineering and services for hospitals and other health care facilities.

Fresenius increased it's dividend in the last 24 years, which is really rare among european companies. As I look at the numbers and valuation of Fresenius, I think its a great company at a fair price. It shows great growth in the last 10 years and I believe that it can maintain this growth in the next decade.

Full disclosure: Long CVS, Next Plc, Fresenius

Recent Buy – October – CVS Health, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Express Scripts, Macy's

October was a really busy month for me. I saw some opportunities on the stock market to improve my portfolio and increase my forward dividend income.

I bought a few shares of CVS Health (CVS) at $73.09 which gives me 2.74% dividend yield. CVS Health is a dividend contender, which increased it's dividend in the last 14 years. After my purchase the price went down more, so I am thinking about to buy more shares of the company.

(Source: www.finviz.com)

I bought Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) shares at $67.36 which means 2.38% dividend yield for me. WBA is a dividend aristocrat, which increased it's dividend in the last 42 years.

(Source: www.finviz.com)

I like to build my portfolio from companies, that reguraly pays me dividends, but sometimes I saw great companies such as Alphabet (GOOGL) or Express Scripts (ESRX) on prices, that are good for me. I thought that the Express Scripts will be a good investment, so I bought it at $57.01.

Finally, at the end of the month, I bought the shares of Macy's at $19.02 which gives me 7.94% dividend yield.

(Source: www.finviz.com)

Full disclosure: Long CVS, WBA, GOOGL, ESRX, M

Dividend Increase - V. F. Corportation (VFC)

VF Corporation (VFC) announced a quarterly dividend increase from $ 0.42 to $ 0.46 per share which is payable December 18, 2017 to holders of record December 8, 2017. This represents a 9.52% increase to quarterly dividends.

That increase rises my YOC to 3.66%.

Disclaimer: Long VFC.

Whitbread - A Quality Company from the UK

I'm following a lot of companies from the US, like Kroger and TEVA, but this time I would like to introduce a quality company from the UK. Whitbread Plc (WTB) is the UK's largest hotel, restaurant and coffee shop operator serving millions of customers every week. They serve their customers through their two businesses: Premier Inn & Restaurants and Costa. Premier Inn has over 760 hotels in the UK, and also has hotels in the Middle East and Germany. Costa operates more than 3,500 coffee shops. It's brand include Premier Inn, Beefeather, Table Table, Taybarns and Costa Coffee.

(Source: Capital Market Day 2016 presentation)

The shares of Whitbread Plc are on the London Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 and the FTSE 350 contains them.

Whitbread Plc increased it's revenue from 1.411 billion GBP to 3.106 billion GBP over the period spanning fiscal years 2006/2007 to 2016/2017. That's a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.21%.

Over the same 10-year period, the company's diluted earnings per share grew from 1.22 GBP to 2.31 GBP, which is a CAGR of 6.55%.

I think that it's really impressive from such a large company, so take a look at it's dividend.

The company increased it's dividend in the last 12 years, with a ten year CAGR 12.22%. The dividend yield is 2.59% with the yesterday's closing price. (37.02 GBP) The payout ratio is only 41.49%.

I think, that if I look at these numbers I see a good company, which worth further research.

Disclaimer: Long Kroger and TEVA

Recent Sell – Allianz AG

I bought a few shares of Allianz AG in 2016 after the Brexit referendum. That was a good timing, because of the panic at the stock market. I sold that shares a few days ago, because I think, that the valuation of the company's shares are really high.

When I bought the shares, the P/BV was 0.85 and the P/S was 0.52, but now I calculate P/BV 1.31 and P/S 0.75. If I look at the historical data, I can only see such high values in 2007. So this two ratios show me, that it is better to realize my profit.

But what I would expect from the company if I hold the shares? Allianz increased it's revenue from €92.183 billion to €110.500 billion over the period spanning fiscal years 2007 to 2016. That's a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.89%.

Over the same 10-year period, the company's diluted earnings per share decreased from €17.71 to €15.00, which is a CAGR of -1.12%.

 I think that it's not so impressive from a company, so take a look at it's dividend.

The company increased it's dividend in the last 4 years, with a ten year CAGR 7.18%. The dividend yield is 4.12% with my selling price. (€184.35) The payout ratio increased in the last 10 years.

These numbers show me, that the company's numbers are stagnating, and I won't expect great long-term returns from it. It was a good value play for me, but at today's prices I think that I will find muh better investment opportunities for my money in the next few months.

Watch List for September

In the last days I was thinking about what share would I buy in September. I am monitoring a lot of candidates, but I choose four dividend paying companies.

Qualcomm (QCOM) engages in the development, design and provision of digital telecommunications products and services. It operates through the following segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT), Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL), and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). Qualcomm pays out $2.28 dividend per share, and increased the dividend in the last 15 years, with a ten year CAGR 16.50%. The dividend yield of the company with the last closing price is 4.38%.

W. W. Grainger (GWW) is a distributor of maintance, repair and operating (MRO) supplies and other related products and services. The company raised it's quaterly dividend by 4.92% to $1.28 per share. This marked the 46th consecutive annual increase for W. W. Grainger. Over the past decade GWW has been able to boost annual dividends at a rate of 15.80% per year. This was supported by an increase in earnings from $4.94/share in 2007 to $9.87/share in 2016. The company has a sustainable dividend payment, and is fairly valued at 15.40 times forward earnings, while yielding 3.20%.

Kroger Company (KR) operates supermarkets, multi-department stores, jewelry stores, pharmacies, fuel centers and convenience stores in the United States. The company increased it's dividend in the last 12 years, with a ten year CAGR 16.50%. The dividend yield is 2.30% with the Friday's closing price. ($21.74) The payout ratio is really low, it's only 27.60%.

The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) is a diversified international family entertainment and media enterprise. It operates through four business segments: Media Networks, Parks & Resorts, Studio Entertainment and Consumer Products & Interactive Media. The company increased it's dividend in the last 7 years, and the ten year dividend growth rate is 18.80%. The dividend yield is 1.52% with the Friday's closing price. ($102.41) Generally I like companies which have at least 10 years consecutive dividend increases but DIS is an exception. It has powerful brand what doesn't need explanation if you have a child.

Full disclosure: Long KR.

Related Posts:

1. Recent Buy – Kroger

Recent Buy – TEVA - 2

A few days ago I wrote about my purchase of TEVA shares. The share price continued the falling, and I was thinking about the company's prospects. I think that the company's debt is managable on a long term horizont, but the short term financial ratios are not so good. That's why there are so many articles about the company's short term financial problems and the probability of bankrupcy. But I think that they can manage the short term problems and they will get large support from the Israeli Ministry of Economy.

I think that the black clouds will go away, but it needs long time. I bought a few more shares at $18.05. I know that it is a very risky investment, but I believe that the company worth more.

Full disclosure: Long TEVA.

Related Posts:

1. Recent Buy – Kroger
2. Recent Buy – TEVA

Recent Buy – TEVA

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TEVA) is a pharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in developing, producing and marketing generic medicines and a portfolio of specialty medicines.

Yesterday TEVA reported second quarter 2017 financial reports, lowered the 2017 business outlook and announced second quarter 2017 dividend of 8.5 cents, down 75% from 34 cents in the first quarter of 2017. Because of the negative news the share price of TEVA presented a huge decline, and it closed on $23.75 (-24.00%).

As I saw this decline of the share price, I decided to buy a few shares of TEVA and I successfully bought it at $23.97.

The company has 224.06 P/E ratio, but the forward P/E ratio is 5.05. TEVA has 0.76 Altman Z-Score, which means that it is in Distress Zone. The Debt/Equity ratio stands at 1.14, but most of them are long-term debt. (LT Debt/Equity: 1.08) I understand that the most of the investors don't like the dividend cut, but I think that the dividend cut will help the company to decrease the debt pile. I know that it is a very risky investment, but I believe that the company worth more.

Full disclosure: Long TEVA.

Related Posts:

1. Recent Buy – Kroger

Investing in ETFs to Track the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100

Investing in ETFs becomes really popular in the last few years. But, do you know, what are you buying when you are investing in an S&P500 or Nasdaq 100 ETF?

If I want to put $10,000 into S&P 500, I will invest $365 in Apple (AAPL), $260 in Microsoft (MSFT), $190 in Amazon (AMZN), $177 in Facebook (FB), $170 in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), $164 in ExxonMobil (XOM) and the rest of the sum into another 494 companies. So the S&P 500 index is not equally weighted. The weight of the six largest members are 13.26%.

If you are curious about the full list you can read here: S&P 500 Companies by Weight.

The Nasdaq 100 shows greater concentration than S&P 500, and the weight of the six largest members are 42.01%.

If I want to put $10,000 into it, I will invest $1,160in Apple (AAPL), $826 in Microsoft (MSFT), $727 in Amazon (AMZN), $561 in Facebook (FB) $927 in Alphabet (GOOG and GOOGL) and the rest of the sum into another 94 companies.

You can read the full list of Nasdaq 100 here: Nasdaq 100 Companies.

Disclosure: Long XOM.

A Good Article to Read: Buying Stocks Solely For Dividend Yield Is a Poor Bet

What are the main variables of the return you receive from a stock? The return of a stock depends on three variables: earnings growth, P/E change, and dividends. You need all of them for a good return. If you think that you need only a good dividend yield, I recommend you to read the Marketwatch article: Buying stocks solely for dividend yield is a poor bet.

Nike – Fiscal 2017 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results

Nike (NKE) reported fiscal 2017 fourth quarter and full year results yesterday. The company presented really good growth.

• Fourth quarter revenues up 5 percent to $8.7 billion; 7 percent growth on a currency-neutral basis*
• Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share increased 22 percent to $0.60
• Fiscal 2017 revenues up 6 percent to $34.4 billion; 8 percent growth on a currency-neutral basis*
• Fiscal 2017 diluted earnings per share increased 16 percent to $2.51

Nike closed at $53.17 yesterday. If I calculate with the newly reported diluted earnings per share, it has a 21.18 P/E ratio.

As I'm looking at these growth numbers, I'm seeing a wonderful company, so I happily hold my shares and collect my dividends.

Disclosure: Long Nike.

Related Posts:

• Nike - A Fairly Valued Share

Archer Daniels Midland – A Fairly Valued Dividend Growth Stock

The company founded in 1902 as Daniels Linseed Co. in Minneapolis, and changed name to Archer Daniels Midland Company in 1923. Today, they are one of the world's largest agricultural processors and food ingredient providers, with more than 32,000 employees in more than 160 countries. The company's primary business segments are Agricultural Services, Corn Processing, Oilseeds Processing and Wild Flacors and Specialty Ingredients.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is a dividend aristocrat, which increased it's dividend in the last 41 years. So I think it has really good track record to look at it's numbers.

ADM increased it's revenue from $44.018 billion to $62.346 billion over the period spanning fiscal years 2007 to 2016. That's a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.94%. 

 

Over the same 10-year period, the company's diluted earnings per share decreased from $3.30 to $2.16, which is a CAGR of -4.60%.

It's not so impressive, but take a look at a little longer period. ADM increased it's diluted EPS from $0.76 to $2.16 over the period spanning fiscal years 2004 to 2016. That's a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.09%. I saw that the company's EPS showing great changing from one year to another.

Despite of the changing EPS, the company is paying out a much more predictable dividend. As I mentioned earlier the company increased it's dividend in the last 41 years, with a ten year CAGR 12.08%. The dividend yield is 3.11% with the last closing price. ($41.14) It's higher than the ADM's five year average. (2.4%)

The payout ratio is 51.20% now, which is managable.

Because of the decreasing EPS and increasing dividend the payout ratio increased constantly in the last 10 years. (In the fiscal year 2007 the payout ratio was only 13.03%.)

The Debt/Equity ratio is 0.42, which is really good.

ADM has a 17.4 P/E ratio, which is slightly lower than the ADM's five year average (18.1) and it's below the stock market's P/E ratio. The forward P/E ratio is 13.92, so the company is expecting a better financial performance in fiscal year 2017, than in 2016.

What is the value of ADM?

I valued shares using the dividend discount model. I factored in a 10% discount rate and a long-term dividend growth rate of 7%.

That growth rate is roughly on par with the company’s long-term EPS growth rate, and I think it’s reasonable when also looking at the recent dividend growth or payout ratio. The DDM analysis gives me a fair value of $42.67.

Disclosure: I have no position in ADM.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Dividend Increase - Kroger

Kroger (NYSE: KR) announced that its Board approved a dividend increase from 48¢ to 50¢ per year. The next quarterly dividend of 12.5 cents per share will be paid on September 1, 2017, to shareholders of record on the close of business on August 15, 2017.

This means, that my YOC increased from 2.27% to 2.37%.

I think that today's prices offer a great opportunity for the management to repurchase the shares of the company. That's why I'm really satisfied with the announced $1 billion share repurchase program.

Related Posts:

• Recent Buy - Kroger

Disclosure: Long KR.

Coca-Cola – An Overvalued Dividend Aristocrat

Coca-Cola (KO) is a wonderful company and made many investor rich. KO has been increasing it's dividend since 1963. Everybody knows it's powerful brands and I think that it will be in the business in the next decades.

Because of the low interest rates more and more investors are looking for safe investments with a small, but stable yield. My opinion, that this reflects in the valuation of Coca-Cola. The dividend yield of KO is 3.27%, which is much higher than the yield of a bank account. But will it be a good investment?

KO has a 31.8 P/E ratio, which is much higher than the KO's five year average. (22.7)

The company's revenue decreased in the last five years from $48,017 million to $41,863 million. The diluted EPS decreased at the same time frame from $1.97 to $1.49. If this decreasing is not changing it will be more and more difficult to pay out such a high dividend. 

KO pays out $1.40 in the last financial year. The payout ratio of the company is 83.6%, so I think there is only a small space to increase it's dividend.

I think that the valuation is not reflecting the growth characteristics of Coca-Cola, so I won't buy it at today's prices.

Full disclosure: Long PEP.